1. The status quo of the prescription drug industry

 

  Since the new medical reform in 2009，Introduce a series of policies to promote the separation of medicine，Especially the requirements of the 2014 "Notice on Implementing the Strategy and Efficiency of Medical Transportation Services and Efficiency of Medical Reform Mission in 2014"，Retail pharmacy undertakes various forms of reforms in medical stake online sports bettingstake betting appinstitutions' outpatient pharmacy services and other professional services; 2016 "Deepening the Reform of the Medical and Health System Reform 2016 Key Work Task" pointed out，Forbidden hospitals are prohibited from restricting prescription outflows，Patients can choose to buy medicines in the hospital's outpatient pharmacy or go to retail pharmacy。

 

  Related policies to encourage prescription outflow

 

  2 Prescription drug market space development forecast

 

  The theoretical incremental space of the prescription outflow is more than 200 billion in the short term，Long -term (2020) will reach 900 billion，The market size of the hospital terminal in 2015 was 951.7 billion yuan，The market size of the pharmaceutical retail terminal of the same period is only 311.1 billion yuan，Hospital medication accounts for 75%。It is expected that after the prescription is out of the outflow，Outpatient medication will have a large proportion of sales through retail terminals，The theoretical incremental space of the prescription outflow is more than 200 billion in the short term，Long -term (2020) will reach 900 billion。

 

  Assumption: 50%of the prescription outflow rate，Outpatient medication accounts for 50%，Long -term (2020) drugs account for 30%。

 

  Short -term，Theoretical space = 1.3 trillion*75%*50%*50%= 243.8 billion yuan。

 

  My stake betting appstake sports betting appLong -term，Theoretical space = 8 trillion*30%*75%*50%= 900 billion。

 

 

Hospital terminal VS retail terminal market scale

 

  3 prescription drug outflow pathway PBM value analysis

 

  According to American experience，Prescription outflow will pass through PBM (Pharmaceutical Benefit Managers，Drug Welfare Management) to achieve，Its value lies in reconstructing the value chain of drug circulation，Its essence can be summarized as: the main body is drug circulation，The interest carrier is insurance，Tools are information technology; the most important way to monetize is the circulation of drugs，Profitted by the cost of medicine saved; followed by providing technical services for insurance companies，Generally 3-8%of the premiums are charged;。

 

  PBM business links generally include four parts: First, the review prescription (signing with medical insurance/insurance company，Make sure the prescription can be reviewed); the second is the real -time connection with the pharmacy，Develop a new type of drug circulation (mail order drug，and to improve services and management through the Internet); third, negotiate bargaining with pharmaceutical factories (reduce procurement costs through scale effects，Save intermediate processes); Fourth, disease and stake betting apphealth management (from stake betting apphospitalization to outpatient clinic to family，For example, A) Direct cooperation with the upstream pharmaceutical factory，For chronic diseases such as diabetes and other chronic diseases, as well as tumor drug development management schemes，b) Interactive health management through economic leverage changes)。

 

  PBM's landing path in China is most likely to be a combination of medical IT+pharmaceutical business+insurance，Slow disease management is the entry point，Retail pharmacy is the carrier of prescription outflow and hierarchical diagnosis and treatment，It is expected to develop into a grass -roots medical service center，Finally form a complete industrial chain。The relevant parties involved include: medical insurance/commercial insurance company、Medical Information Company、Drug circulation enterprise、Pharmaceutical Enterprise、Slow Disease Management Company，Among them, retail pharmacies are very important links，For example，CVS to acquire caremark，Create 1 minute clinic，Turn through all aspects of PBM。

 

The value of PBM lies in reconstructing drug circulation value chain